Tuesday, July 21, 2009

I Had a Sneaking Suspicion...

6 comments:

KnockoffNeil said...

hey guys why no posts in a while??
Just wanted to ask what sort of variance you guys run into when your playing. Like how big are your down and up swings.

Hope everythings going well with the new house anyways mate.

Lorin Yelle said...

It is, actually!

The reason there has not been any posts is because I was going through a down period with poker for awhile and was not only sickened by the topic but also not particularly inspired to write about it either.

Fortunately, I put the piece in place to turn things around (and they do turn around fast!) which certainly warrants an entry to explain.

As for the variance, that is something of a loaded question. If I am playing shitty, I have lost as much as $1,000 in a day ($900 with RB, just once) playing nl200, but also made over $1,100 in a day several times.

When playing well (aka, in the zone), I have rarely lost more than $400 in a day, with my best streak being about $5,000 in 10 days time at nl200.

Given all this info, I guess the question sort of becomes irrelevant when viewed through this lens. It is dependent on too many factors.

Travis "The Dirrty" Rose said...

I play a little more recklessly than Lorin (a main reason my results aren't as good as his) so my variance tends to be higher. I did have one day a while back where, in the first 7 ours of a 10 hour session, I made almost $2,000, but lost most of it back in the last 3 hours to only show a $400 profit (that was heartbreaking). But most of the time the variance is much lower. When I am playing well, generally $300 to $400 is what I look to make and a bad loss might be $200 to $250. Lorin plays some higher limits than I do, I rarely go above $1-$2.

Roenan said...

Was it a leak in the game plan or just normal variance that was the cause? I figured you guys would post when you could, even if you didn't the blueprint you have laid out has been doing fine by me.

Roenan said...

Oh and if it was a leak, do you want to give details, if not I can understand that.

Lorin Yelle said...

Variance can only explain so much. It was only a leak in that I wasn't taking the time to find the best "solution" to the problem. I was playing in hyper mode and using the plays that worked most of the time.

In a nutshell, I was clicking the buttons too fast. Doesn't sound like a big deal, but it is. I used to do a quick 4-count before taking any action, even if that was a check-fold. I did this to cover up any online tells, but it turns out that it also gave me an extra 1.5 seconds per decision. Remarkably, for me that is the difference between winning 1.6bb/100 and being a borderline rakeback pro.