Out of Retirement and Back to Blogging!

The following new post is in response to my friend Gary's newest piece on his excellent new blog. I went to use the comment box but realized that as the words kept flowing, it would be much more appropriate to designate the comment as a complete post on its own where I could add all the relevant links with ease.

To begin, please read Gary's commentary on the new proposed rakeback changes for Poker Stars players here.

Here is my response:

Unfortunately, I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for a response from Poker Stars pros. Quite frankly, it ain't gonna happen....

They are surely under some sort of contract, not to mention, if they are receiving 100% Rakeback currently, any potential changes do not affect them AT ALL (or at least, minimally).

This goes back to a potential solution that I have been rolling around in my head aimed specifically at rake reduction for CAP players. Being that the CAP communities are probably less segmented from other player pools (we are more connected/share more knowledge, etc. through various information hubs), it is not inconceivable that a gentleman's agreement could be reached to "chop" in all blind vs. blind scenarios between regulars, as this is where most rake is taken from the player pool. This could be done simply by having the small blind fold all hands when the action is folded around to him, regardless of the cards he holds. The EV of both players would now become exactly zero.

Of course, the fish wouldn't know or cooperate, but that is fine. More importantly, the players who perform best in the blinds, especially the rare few who post an actual positive winrate when opening the SB might not like the idea so much. I am thinking specifically of guys like MistTheFlop, x_QUIXTAR_x, RaiseMoon, and Alphafoil.

Pause and think for a moment about small winrate players like Alphafoil who simply kick ass from the SB. If he were forced to abandon his winrate from opening the SB when BvB, he might no longer be a net winning player before RB is calculated. Therefore, I strongly suspect that Alphafoil would be resistant to any specific changes that would cause a negative impact to his overall income.

In light of this idea, think of how this concept could be extended to current Poker Stars pros and how it becomes significant when you begin thinking about certain short stackers who have struggled in the new 20bb CAP game era, like WizardOfAhhs. His position concerning rake changes must be quite difficult because if he takes any action that could potentially threaten his pro status that causes it to be revoked, he might no longer be a net winner in the game if he continues to use strategies that are now obsolete in the post-short stacking era. To see evidence of this, all you need to do is reference the graphs of how certain players have performed on PokerTableRatings after February 2011. Previous short stack legends such as WizardOfAhhs, IMSAKIDD and Chisness have flatlined, while on a rather tragic note, 1Bunn and matate have gone into a complete nosedive.

I know this all sounds completely cynical, but I can't argue with the logic of responding to any potential rake changes with anything more than silence if you are an employee of Poker Stars with your job at stake.