Monday, April 13, 2009

How We Are Deceived by Our Own Miscalculations of the Future

While not made for poker directly, I believe that this discussion has some very important concepts for understanding other players and our own misconceptions about future probability. For those of you who may have already read the works of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, you will quickly be able to appreciate and enjoy this highly entertaining (at least for us dorks!) talk by Dan Gilbert.

For those who do not see how this applies to the game, I would like to add a disclaimer that I believe long-term success at the game requires melding different disciplines to understanding the game in all its facets. And to people like Microstakes Bankroll Builder, yes, this also includes understanding the mindset and goals of short stackers rather than quickly casting judgment.

A person who seeks long term profit from poker isn't really all that different than someone who pursues art or music for the same reasons. Being able to draw or write a great song does not in any way guarantee you success. You have to understand the rules and regulations of your industry, understand and interpret the impact of the conventional wisdom on your field, understand the desires and needs of your audience, etc.

I hope you all find this both entertaining and enlightening.


Anonymous said...

Hey, great clip.

I like Dan Gilbert, also. I caught another Ted video where he discusses happiness, good stuff. Oddly enough, I have also read The Black Swan, and I also shortstack.

Joyously, and with impunity.

I've always wondered if the animosity directed to shortstackers had less to do with game preservation, and more to do with the psychology surrounding being hit by a moving predator. As Dan mentioned, immediate returns/experiences play a much larger role in our emotional response than future calculations.

Something that bites, then disappears, has got to leave a mark.




Lorin Yelle said...

I will most likely be watching that one tonight, and I'm sure it will be top notch as well. There is another factor I think that is at play in the short stack hatred. I was strictly a limit hold em player before for about 1 1/5 years before I ever started playing NLH full time. Travis had prodded me to play it for a long time, but in order to do so, I almost had to admit to myself that I was "wasting all my time" with limit when there was a much more profitable game sitting there that whole time. I think the threat that most full stackers could have bene making more money the entire time if they had just done away with all the excess.

I really like that "moving predator" remark. I personally consider it as "guerilla poker."